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News » Cheat Sheet: The road favorite phenomenon


Cheat Sheet: The road favorite phenomenon


Cheat Sheet: The road favorite phenomenon
This is the article the NFL probably preferred I didn't write.


Sure, I could have done something on this year's MVP award. Pennington or Manning? But honestly, who really cares? Give it to both of them.

Or maybe I could have done an article on all of Monday's fired coaches and why Brian Billick makes the most sense in New York. Perhaps even something on the Pro Bowl being moved from after the Super Bowl to before it.

But my mind's on the Vegas sports books this week. And in those lovely parlors of sin, mischief and grief, a rather curious situation has arisen in regards to this weekend's playoff games.

For the first time, all four of the postseason's opening weekend games feature road favorites. With Atlanta a 2-point favorite over Arizona, Indianapolis giving 1 in San Diego, Baltimore giving 3 points at Miami and the Eagles favored by a field goal in Minnesota, we're looking at an anomaly in the NFL's underworld. Vegas is abuzz.

How rare a scenario is this?

Well, since 2001, only four road teams have been favored in 70 playoff games. According to R.J. Bell of Pregame.com, the odds of seeing four home dogs in one playoff weekend are 93,000 to 1. 93,000 to 1! The Lions had better Super Bowl odds entering this season.

Of course, in a year in which Miami went from 1-15 to AFC East champions, two rookie quarterbacks started 16 games for playoff teams and both the Jets and Buccaneers missed the playoffs after 8-3 starts, nothing should surprise us. 93,000 to 1? That's nothing. After all, the Arizona Cardinals won their division.

Prior to this weekend, the four road teams that were favored in playoff contests since 2001 were Jacksonville at Pittsburgh in '08, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati in '06, New England at Pittsburgh in '05, and Tennessee at Baltimore in '04.

All four squads won those playoff games.

We can talk Vegas and which book has what odds all day, but that's for another time.

The real issue is whether this is a good or bad sign for the league? We waste our collective time and breath moaning over college football's title game process every December, yet here we are on the eve of the NFL playoffs and we have four different games in which the assumed "worse" of the two teams has a homefield advantage. How's that make any sense?

How screwy is the current NFL playoff system, when the 8-8 San Diego Chargers are hosting the 12-4 Indianapolis Colts this weekend?

Or is that the very beauty of the NFL playoffs? The uncertainty and challenge of it all. Though only four teams had been favored on the road since 2001, several squads packed their bags and got the job done in opponent's stadiums. Though Vegas (and the majority of the media) had no faith in them, the Giants won three road playoff games en route to winning the franchise's third Super Bowl championship last season. In '06, both the Colts (over Baltimore) and Patriots (over San Diego) won road AFC Divisional Round games before meeting in Indy for the AFC title game. In '05, Pittsburgh won three road games — starting with the aforementioned clash with Cincinnati — before toppling the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.

The list goes on. Michael Vick and the Falcons went up to Lambeau and beat the Packers a few years back, the Patriots beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the '01 and '05 AFC Championship Games, and both the Buccaneers and Panthers went to Philly and knocked off the Eagles in NFC title games. Make no mistake; playoff teams win on the road all the time nowadays.

But for four out of four home teams to be favored in one weekend? Well, it's just bizarre. The NBA, the NHL, MLB certainly don't have such scenarios.

The talk on all of the talking-head studio shows this week has been "Which Team is This Year's Giants?" You've got guys in four segmented boxes on ESPN screaming their heads off, listing teams one after the next. "The Falcons! The Colts! The Eagles!"

Of course, that whole "this year's Giants" thing is pointless. It''s a trick question. The answer is zero.

New York went on the road and upset three favorites before beating New England in Glendale.

There can be no team like that in '08 when all of the road teams are actually favored to win.

One thing that is for certain? It's been a strange, long NFL season.

A 93,000-to-1-like season.

Now on to this week's Cheat Sheet ...

Atlanta at Arizona, Saturday 4:30 p.m. EST

Must-read:

  • Schrager: The top athletes of 2008
  • Marvez: Odd timing for Shanahan firing

Must-see:

  • Marvez: Shanahan had solid '08
  • NFL on Fox: NFC playoff preview
View more videos >>

Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: December 31, 2008

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